On new shiny things

all that glitters...is gold if its new

A core lesson from the last few cycles is that - you SHOULD always be looking for the shiny new tokens.

Why?

1 - Bagholder Problem

Older tokens have too many bagholders. These bagholders were from the past cycle. Every single cycle traumatizes its participants. Those from the 2017 cycle were traumatized by ETH dropping over 95% and ICO treasuries literally being emptied out. Those from 2020 cycle…well, there was LUNA, FTX, BlockFi, Celsius and Genesis…

Suffice to say, older token bagholders have PTSD. They are likely to cut exposure on a move up versus a bright eyed shiny new entrant into the space.

You do not want these people to be the holder base for whichever token that you have chosen in your portfolio.

No. What you want are bright eyed bushy tailed participants who are chasing that 100x. 100x or bust…they say. These tokens have way less resistance on the way up.

2 - Every generation creates its own ponzis.

Nobody wants to pump someone else’s bags. New entrants into crypto do not enjoy becoming the bottom of pile dumped on victim. They are dumb enough to come into crypto, but hey, they arent dumb enough that they would willingly go ahead to get dumped on.

What’s the solution? Ah ha…create your own ponzis!

If we look at the last 2 cycles. In 2017, ICOs were spinning up. Those were the wealth generating machines if you were quick enough to hop in. In 2020, it was dog forks, defi forks, ohm fork, jewel fork…fork your mom.

you get the point.

3 - You lose money

Back in 2020 when we were in the midst of a raging bulla…i calculated the return of a portfolio with equal weightage on the top 10 tokens snapshotted in 2017. Suffice to say, BTC was up multiples, however the rest were down as fuck. That equal weighted portfolio underperformed BTC dramatically.

That’s gonna be the same case for anyone scooping up “cheap solana and avax”. Same as scooping up “cheap EOS and TRX” last cycle.

Good Luck Have fun.

PS: I like shiny pokemons as well.